H5N1 reaches every continent as vaccination moves up the trade agenda

Published on : 24 Sep 2026

Bird flu has spread to Australia and New Zealand, leaving Easter Island as the only place H5N1 has not reached, the World Egg Organisation's Dr Olivier Espeisse told the WEO Global Leadership Conference in Singapore on 9 September.

Comparing the outbreak map with the one he showed in Warsaw less than six months earlier, he said the changes were in Peru, Chile, South Africa, West Africa and, for the first time, Australia and New Zealand. "H5N1 has completed its world tour," he said.

He said the virus most likely reached Australia via Heard Island, an Australian territory in the southern Indian Ocean, where H5N1 killed close to 75 per cent of seal pups from October 2025, around 8,000 animals by his estimate. He said brown skuas and southern petrels, which scavenge dead seals, probably carried it to the mainland, and that CSIRO has linked the two viruses. Australia now has close to 400 wild bird findings in every state except Tasmania, he said, while New Zealand has had a handful, including a harrier found in the middle of the island, which suggested to him the virus may already be inland. Neither country has yet had a case in poultry.

Australia
Rowan McMonnies, managing director of Australian Eggs, said Australia had recorded 498 HPAI events, but as authorities stopped reporting individual detections after a few weeks and an event can be one bird or 10,000, the true scale of spread has been lost. The virus is in dozens of wild species and in mammals including foxes, he said.

"One day happened on the 19th of June," he said of the virus's arrival, and on 29 July eradication was deemed not technically feasible. He said farms have been forced to cut movements of eggs and people to an absolute minimum, and that the industry has validated nitrogen whole-house gassing and outdoor composting for disposal so it can cut response times that ran to 180 days on some farms during recent H7 outbreaks. He did not expect vaccination soon but said the industry wants it ready in case biosecurity and response are not enough, and that flooding rains, which bring huge wild bird breeding, will determine how hard Australia is hit.

India and Africa
Dr Espeisse said around 45 HPAI outbreaks have been notified in India this year, probably fewer than have occurred. Suresh Chitturi, president and CEO of Srinivasa Farms and a WEO past president, said HPAI and LPAI are endemic and that the map heavily under-reports them, because there is no compensation and state governments, which would have to pay it, have no interest in declaring outbreaks. He said the government has now accepted it will allow HPAI vaccines, with permissions expected within two to three months, something he has pushed for on the grounds that India exports less than 1 per cent of its production.

In Africa, Dr Espeisse said the virus has spread along the west coast into Senegal and Ivory Coast, and that outbreaks have intensified in Nigeria, which he said matters because of its huge population and high demand for eggs. South Africa has a continuous flow of cases, he said, now extending into Limpopo province.

Dr Abongile Balarane, CEO of the SAPA egg division, said South Africa lost about 30 per cent of its national flock in 2023 and currently vaccinates against H5 in broiler breeders only. She said the government's November 2023 protocol does not work for layer farmers because it requires vaccinated spent hens to be slaughtered, when they are sold live into village markets and there is no slaughter capacity. After talks failed in 2024 and 2025, SAPA lodged a legal objection with the minister, and she said poultry farmers were hurt when the government produced a protocol and procured vaccines for beef within six months of foot-and-mouth striking. SAPA vets submitted an industry protocol on 8 September, and she said the minister and chief veterinary officer have acknowledged receipt for the first time.

The Americas and Europe
Dr Espeisse said Peru has had many wild bird cases, mostly pelicans, but only a few domestic outbreaks, one in ducks and one in fighting cocks, and he believed Peru's continued vaccination, now concentrated on breeders, has helped keep domestic cases low.

He said the northern hemisphere summer was very quiet, with around 16 domestic outbreaks in July, but that the season now climbs steeply from October to a November peak as migrating birds come south, where ten years ago it peaked in February. "This is the time to strengthen biosecurity because the highest risk in the northern hemisphere comes right now in October and November," he said.

He said France, which vaccinates ducks, had 488 outbreaks in the season before vaccination began, falling to 10 in 2023/24 and 19 in 2024/25, but rising to 125 in 2025/26, around half of them in vaccinated ducks. He put this down to heavy wild bird pressure from cranes spreading the virus from the north-east to the south-west, and to duck immunity falling away late in life despite two doses, whereas layers can reach lifelong immunity. He also said about 10 per cent were biosecurity lapses after a couple of quiet years had made people less attentive.

Vaccination and trade
He said the Dominican Republic is now vaccinating and that Singapore, which has authorised vaccines, may join it soon. The Dutch layer pilot is complete and is expected to lead to a vaccination plan by the end of the year, he said, and the UK turkey trial is complete with a report expected soon. France will try a heterologous booster in ducks this winter, as a booster from a different type of vaccine generally gives stronger immunity and could avoid the need for a third injection.

He said WOAH sets the rules on animal disease and trade, with disputes judged at the WTO. Under those rules, trading partners can close trade after an outbreak until 28 days after final disinfection, and vaccination itself should be no barrier, but vaccinated flocks need extra surveillance, and importing countries can say that surveillance is not good enough. "Even though there shouldn't be any barrier for trade, there are," he said. He said experts are moving away from unvaccinated sentinel birds, which can spread HPAI, towards real-time PCR testing of dead birds.

To tackle this, a WOAH expert group chaired by Professor David Swayne is drafting guidelines for surveillance of vaccinated birds, with a first draft due within weeks, consultation with stakeholders including WEO, and approval expected in May 2027. He said US egg producers had proposed to USDA two pools of 11 birds tested every 15 days, while EU rules require 15 dead birds a month at much lower cost, and he hoped the guidelines would align with the EU approach, although some experts argue the much larger US farms need stricter testing.

Drew Black, chief executive of Egg Farmers of Canada, said a side event on HPAI vaccination and trade will be held at the WTO SPS committee on 4 November, organised by the Canadian Food Inspection Agency with Egg Farmers of Canada and WEO. He said Canada's 18-month layer trial vaccinated about 17,500 day-old chicks in August, with 1,000 to be boosted and 500 left unvaccinated, and the eggs are being kept on the domestic market while hens will be challenged with HPAI at the national laboratory.

Closing, Dr Espeisse described an age of culling from 1959, an age of biosecurity from 1996 and today's age of vaccination, with the virus entrenched in wild birds and spreading in mammals, and said the choke point is in poultry. He said vaccines must be matched to circulating strains, which depends on good wild bird surveillance, and that France took a year to prepare, choosing ducks because they shed so much virus. Countries also need enough laboratory capacity, ring studies so different labs produce the same results, and a single IT system linking surveillance, animal movements and vaccination, he said.